Geopolitical and macro risks are on the rise. More than two thirds of 36 Central Banks are hiking rates (record since before the GFC). Their agreessive front loading and its impact on a bigger than expected recesssion is finding a space as a new driver of volatilty. The war in Ukraine with the new developments in the battle front is escalating the risks of the use of unconventional weapons.
Already, two Central Banks (BOJ & PBoC) have intervened in markets to defend their currencies against a solid USD strenght that, even with some timid corrections, is still far from turning down. The BOE intervened in the Gilts markets to prevent a funding shortfall and the collapse of the GBP after a massive unfunded fiscal plan that was not attractive at all to markets.
“The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem,” (John Connally Jr., Richard Nixon’s Treasury secretary, 1971). The dollar strengh is causing major pain across the board, as the US is exporting inflation, especially to thouse regions more energy dependant like Europe and Japan, and also to others that need to serve USD denominated debt (EM).
Our fund strategies (agnostic on market direction) continue to haverst premium in currency markets on a monhtly basis, with tight risk controls and modest exposure given the variety of drivers and their high uncertain outcomes.